Three Ways the Fed’s Soft Landing Could Turn Hard
Three ways in which the U.S. economy could botch the soft landing and fall into recession.
Notes on the Economy – Q3 2023 Summary
Economic growth is robust, the unemployment rate is at a 54-year low, the stock market is up over 15% year-to-date! What could possibly go wrong?
Debt-Ceiling Deal’s Economic Drag Will Be Small
New federal-debt law will do little to roll back government spending and have only a small impact on U.S. GDP growth.
Notes on the Economy – Q2 2023 Summary
It would not take much to push the economy into a downturn serious enough to warrant a recession label.
A Dangerous Game of Debt-ceiling Chicken
Politicians bickering over the debt ceiling would never intentionally push America off the fiscal cliff, risking economic calamity, or would they?
Fed Risks Recession When Cleaning Up Sticky Inflation
Inflation is a sticky mess that the Federal Reserve keeps scrubbing away at with interest-rate hikes, even if it means causing a recession.
Kremlin vs. Kyiv: Impact on the Global Economy Weakens
After a year, the Russo-Ukrainian war is still a potent tragedy yet exerting less influence on the global economy.
Notes on the Economy – Q1 2023 Summary
Judging by the economic data, no hare has yet entered the 2023 GDP race; the safest bet is likely on the tortoise.
Webinar: AMG’s 2023-2025 Economic Outlook
Warning: Recession Likely Ahead —
Bonds are a bright spot amid prospects of a mild recession this year.
Deficit Dilemma: Is It Time to Worry?
Forget the debt limit, the real problem is the ballooning federal deficit of $31 trillion—five times higher than two decades ago—a mortgage that our kids and grandkids will have to pay.